【Copper】
SHFE copper surged and then retreated from above 82,000 yuan on Wednesday. Spot copper was at 82,655 yuan today, with a discount in Shanghai and a narrowing to 130 yuan/mt in Guangdong. Overseas investment banks have significant differences in their views on next week's tariffs. SHFE copper shows signs of short-term adjustment, but the pullback is expected to be limited during the peak season, with mid- and downstream players pricing on demand.
【Aluminum & Alumina】
SHFE aluminum continued to fluctuate today, with spot prices maintaining a slight discount. Over the past week, social inventories of aluminum ingots and billets decreased by 35,000 mt and 13,000 mt, respectively, with apparent demand slightly stronger than expected. The market anticipates peak season consumption, but spot feedback remains tepid, and aluminum billet processing fees remain low. After a significant cost reduction, higher profits require a larger deficit expectation. In the short term, SHFE aluminum faces resistance at 21,000 yuan, with support at the low of the recent one-month range of 20,500 yuan, suggesting a sideways movement. Alumina operating capacity fluctuates at historically high levels, with expanded production cuts and maintenance failing to alter the long-term loose trend. Miners show strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, with Guinea ore still at $90. As some northern alumina companies face cash cost losses, the decline in spot alumina may slow before ore prices loosen further, with limited upside for futures, focusing on resistance at the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band.
【Zinc】
Overseas fundamental data continues to improve, supporting LME zinc's stronger performance compared to the domestic market, with spot zinc imports at a loss of over 1,500 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc fluctuates at high levels, with downstream players cautious and some traders lowering premiums to sell. The market awaits the outcome of the new US tariffs on April 2, with overseas zinc consumption under pressure and domestic consumption not exceeding expectations. Long and short funds are battling around 24,200 yuan/mt, with zinc concentrate TCs rebounding from lows. Domestic smelters have turned profitable, and expectations for production increases are strong, but SHFE zinc lacks rebound momentum. However, with the benchmark TC negotiation results pending, cost side and downstream rigid demand still provide support below, suggesting SHFE zinc will likely fluctuate between 23,500-24,200 yuan/mt.
【Lead】
LME lead continued to consolidate, with the spot import window remaining closed. The spread between futures and spot prices is 215 yuan/mt, still unfavorable for SHFE warrant outflows, passively strengthening regional tightness in lead ingot supply, with relatively loose supply in South China. Secondary refined lead suppliers follow the market, with mainstream sources at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead average price, with larger discounts in Hunan, at a discount of 150 yuan/mt against the SMM 0# zinc average price. Battery replacement demand weakens, with slow inventory digestion by dealers. Battery companies maintain promotional efforts, and some plan to take holidays at month-end to avoid inventory buildup. SHFE lead lacks further upward momentum, with short-term focus on resistance near 17,880 yuan/mt.
【Nickel & Stainless Steel】
SHFE nickel's rebound met resistance, with active market trading. Jinchuan's premium rebounded to 2,000 yuan, while Russian nickel is at a discount of 25 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel at a discount of 100 yuan. High-grade NPI prices remain strong, with Indonesian ore still influencing raw material pricing, with the latest quote at 1,027 yuan per mtu. In terms of inventory, NPI inventory dropped by 6,000 mt to 23,000 mt, refined nickel inventory fell by 1,900 mt to 47,000 mt, and stainless steel inventory slightly decreased to 990,000 mt. After the price drop, NPI remains the main support on the cost side, with strong support estimated near 130,000 yuan. Technically, SHFE nickel has not weakened yet, waiting for short opportunities to mature.
【Tin】
SHFE tin traded between 275,000-280,000 yuan during the daytime session, with Wa State continuing to arrange resumption of production. Spot tin was at 278,200 yuan today, with attention on LME tin inventory and premium/discount changes in the evening. SHFE tin has been recommended for mid- and downstream players to price on demand near 275,000 yuan this week. In the context of supply being more easily priced quickly, it is recommended to focus more on the demand side, with 280,000-285,000 yuan considered the high-price zone.
